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Arizona is Desperate for Success in Houston

Losers of seven of their last 10 games and becoming increasingly desperate in their bid to make the playoffs, it won’t get any easier for the Arizona Diamondbacks as they travel to meet the red-hot World Series champs at Minute Maid Park. The visitors open as +160 dogs tonight in Texas.

  • The Diamondbacks are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games with Robbie Ray as the starting pitcher.
  • The Astros are 9-0 SU in their last nine games as favorite.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Diamondbacks’ last 12 games on the road with an average combined score of 6.58.

Diamondbacks vs Astros Game Center

Can We Get Robbie Some Run Support?

Robbie Ray has been outstanding on the mound lately despite results that indicate otherwise. The Diamondbacks are 3-8 SU in his last 11 starts but Ray hasn’t been the losing pitcher in a game since July 12 – accounting for just one of those eight losses.

Since the beginning of August, he’s allowed just six extra-base hits and a .200 batting average through 154 batters. That average drops to .187 in road starts. It’s the offense and the bullpen that have hung him out to dry.

Dallas Keuchel (11-10, 3.59 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) takes the ball for Houston in this interleague series opener. Keuchel’s opponents’ batting average over the last 30 days is .288 through five starts while his WHIP is 1.38.

Totals Data is Interesting

A lot of totals trends involving these teams point to the UNDER hitting in tonight’s contest. In the last four games of this matchup, the average combined score is just 5.75 with the UNDER hitting in each game. The total opened at 8.0 tonight.

Additionally, the total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Diamondbacks’ last 12 road games with an average combined score of 6.58, which can be largely attributed to Arizona’s lack of offense since mid-August. The D-backs are slashing just .234/.311/.370 and are 24th in runs scored over that period.

My Pick for this Game

I do think that Houston wins this game straight up, but there’s a couple of spots here where I think there’s value to be had betting on Arizona. For lower-risk bettors, the +1.5 runline for Arizona at -120 is a decent bet as the Diamondbacks are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four vs the Astros.

I’ve already locked in the first five inning moneyline. Robbie Ray can’t control what happens after he’s out of the game, but he can control the first five innings and at +175 there’s a lot of value for the D-backs on the F5.